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Global Market Volatility

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The financial markets experienced a mixed bag of developments last Thursday, as investors shifted their focus toward the upcoming non-farm payroll data scheduled for release on FridayA report from the U.SLabor Department highlighted an increase of 11,000 in the number of initial jobless claims, bringing the total to 219,000, slightly surpassing the estimated 213,000. The forecasts from a survey of 44 economists ranged from 205,000 to 230,000. Additionally, the four-week moving average stood at 216,800, while the number of continuous claims rose by 36,000 to reach 1,886,000 as of the week ending January 25. This data suggests a modest rebound in the initial jobless claims, albeit still representing a relatively calm labor market.

The U.Sstock market closed with varied results among the major indicesThe Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 125.65 points, reflecting a decline of 0.28% to settle at 44,747.63 points

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Conversely, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose by 99.66 points, or 0.51%, closing at 19,791.99 pointsThe S&P 500 witnessed a gain of 22.09 points, representing a 0.36% increase to reach 6,083.57 pointsNotable performances included Nvidia's increase of 3%, while Tesla saw a drop of 1%, and Ford Motors dropped more than 7%. Additionally, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index climbed by 2.69%, with Kuaishou rising over 11%, iQIYI nearing an 8% ascent, and Alibaba gaining 1%.

Over in Europe, equities showed positive momentum, reflected in the performance of various indicesThe German DAX 30 Index advanced by 351.04 points, marking a 1.63% rise to close at 21,903.19 pointsIn the UK, the FTSE 100 rose by 101.96 points or 1.18%, finishing at 8,725.25 pointsFrance's CAC 40 Index saw a gain of 115.94 points, up by 1.47% to conclude at 8,007.62 pointsThe pan-European Euro Stoxx 50 Index increased by 84.43 points, translating to a 1.60% climb to sit at 5,355.55 points

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Similarly, Spain's IBEX 35 Index rose by 210.40 points, up 1.68% at 12,735.00, while Italy's FTSE MIB Index saw a notable rise of 523.52 points, or 1.43%, closing at 37,105.00 points.

In the Asia-Pacific region, the Nikkei 225 Index posted a gain of 0.61%, while South Korea's KOSPI Index climbed over 1%. Conversely, Indonesia's Jakarta Composite Index experienced a dip of 2.12%. Overall, these movements across global markets reflect investors' sentiments leading up to crucial economic indicators.

Gold prices exhibited some volatility, with spot gold dropping by 0.37% to trade at $2,856.60 per ounceEarlier in the day, it reached a low of $2,834.26. This fluctuation comes off the heels of the historical high achieved on February 5, which was $2,882.36. Similarly, COMEX gold futures fell by 0.44%, trading at $2,880.40 per ounce after touching a low of $2,855.00.

On the oil front, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures for March delivery experienced a decline of $0.42, corresponding to a 0.59% drop, settling at $70.60 per barrel

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This marks the latest turn in a volatile energy market, where prices have seen wild swings in response to various demand and supply factors.

The U.Sdollar index, which measures the greenback against six major currencies, rose marginally by 0.1%, closing at 107.690. The exchange rate at the close of the New York markets indicated that one euro could be exchanged for $1.0385, down from $1.0407 in the preceding sessionThe British pound exchanged for $1.2436, declining from $1.2506, while the dollar was valued at 151.39 yen, lower than the previous day's rate of 152.53 yenConversely, the dollar gained ground against the Swiss franc, exchanging for $0.9051 compared to $0.9010 the prior dayAdditionally, one U.Sdollar was equivalent to 1.4319 Canadian dollars, and 10.8963 Swedish kronas, reflecting minor fluctuations against these currencies.

From a macroeconomic perspective, remarks from Federal Reserve Governor Austan Goolsbee suggested that further rate cuts are feasible, albeit at a slower pace

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During a recent automotive seminar, Goolsbee indicated that the U.Seconomy is approaching full employment, with a solid growth rate and falling inflation—factors that would make it possible for the Fed to continue with measured rate cutsHowever, he also highlighted concerns regarding uncertainties stemming from tariffs and other policy changes that could influence the decision-making process“We’ve basically achieved full employment, and inflation seems to be improving; if this trend continues, rates will be lower than they are now,” he stated.

Meanwhile, retail investor engagement in the U.Sstock market has surged at an unprecedented rateIn the wake of some institutional investors pulling back, retail investors have been breaking records in stock purchases, showing no signs of slowing downAccording to Emma Wu, a global quantitative and derivatives strategist at JPMorgan, the enthusiasm from retail investors has reached levels never seen before, even surpassing the frenzied interest during the 2021 meme stock era.

On the individual stock front, Amazon's revenue outlook fell short of market expectations, resulting in a more than 5% decline in after-hours trading

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For the fourth quarter of 2024, Amazon projected revenue of $187.8 billion, exceeding Wall Street's forecast of $187.33 billion; however, the anticipated first quarter revenue range of $151 billion to $155.5 billion was under the expected $158.64 billionStrong sales during the holiday shopping season bolstered Amazon's retail sector, helping to offset weakness in its cloud computing armInvestors grew impatient with the company's significant capital expenditures in budding areas like artificial intelligence, seeking quicker returnsDespite the cloud division facing struggles, the retail segment achieved a 7% increase in online sales, totaling $75.56 billion against an expected $74.55 billion.

Nvidia's shares increased by 1.7%, with the upcoming GTC annual conference set to take place from March 17 to 21. Nvidia saw a substantial rise of over 3%, trading at $128.68 per shareThe anticipation around the conference includes a keynote presentation by the company’s CEO Jensen Huang on March 18, where market watchers are eager to hear updates on products like DeepSeek and the new Nvidia GB300 servers

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